A former asteroidal planet as the origin of comets

The idea of a missing planet between Mars and Jupiter has been with us since the formulation of the Titius-Bode law. The discovery of the asteroid belt in that location led to speculation about a planetary breakup event. Both ideas remained conjectures until Ovenden's finding in 1972, from which it could be derived that the mass of the missing planet was about 90 Earth masses and that its breakup was astronomically recent. Apparently much of that mass was blown out of the solar system during the disruption of the planet. Because of the action of planetary perturbations, only two types of orbits of surviving fragments could remain at present-asteroid orbits and once-around very-long-period elliptical orbits. Objects in the latter type of orbit are known to exist-the very-long-period comets. A large number of these are on elliptical trajectories with periods of revolution of 5 million years; yet they are known to have made no more than one revolution in an orbit passing close to the Sun. By direct calculation it is possible to predict the distribution of the orbital elements of objects moving on long-period ellipses which might have originated in a breakup event in the asteroid belt 5 million years ago. The comet orbits have the predicted distribution in every case where a measure is possible. Some of the distribution anomalies, such as a bias in the directions of perihelion passage, are statistically strong and would be difficult to explain in any other uncontrived way. In addition, a relative deficiency of orbits with perihelia less than 1 AU indicates that the comets must have had small perihelion distances since their origin, rather than that they have been perturbed into small perihelion orbits from a distant “cloud” of comets by means of stellar encounters. The comet orbital data lead to the conclusion that all comets originated in a breakup event in the asteroid belt (5.5±0.6) × 10⁶ years ago. Asteroid and meteoritic evidence can now be interpreted in a way which not only is supportive but also provides fresh insights into understanding their physical, chemical, and dynamical properties. Particularily noteworthy are the young cosmic-ray exposure ages of meteorites, evidence of a previous high-temperature/pressure environment and of chemical differentiation of the parent body, and compositional similarities among comets, asteroids, and meteorites. Certain “explosion signatures” in asteroid orbital element distributions are likewise indicative. Tektites may also have originated in the same event; but if so, there are important implications regarding the absolute accuracy of certain geological dating methods. Little is known about possible planetary breakup mechanisms of the requisite type, though some speculations are offered. In any case, the asteroid belt is an existing fact; and the arguments presented here that a large planet did disintegrate 5 million years ago must be judged on their merits, even in the absence of a suitable theory of planetary explosions.