三峡库区外迁农村移民适应性研究——基于9个省份983户移民样本的实证分析

基于对三峡库区外迁移民的实地调查数据,运用Logit模型方法分析了移民家庭决策者(即户主)个人特征、移民家庭特征、移民安置地社会关系和移民政策等相关因素对移民安置地适应性的影响。结果表明:移民家庭决策者的性别、年龄、受教育程度,家庭迁出人口数量、主要收入来源和人均收入等家庭特征,与当地居民的交往程度、与当地人通婚情况等社会关系特征,安置地区、安置区位、安置方式、后期扶持、职业培训等移民政策因素是影响移民适应性的显著因素。未来移民安稳政策的调整方向可以从优先加强对移民家庭户主的教育和职业能力提升、实现移民家庭的整体搬迁、积极引导移民与当地居民的社会交融,把优于迁出地社会经济水平的地区或区位作为移出安置区(点)、在安置方式上更加倾向于移民意愿、强化移民后期扶持的落实等方面着手。

Research on the Social Adaptation of Rural Emigrants from Three Gorges Reservoir Area:Based on Empirical Analysis of 983 Emigrant Samples from 9 Provinces

This paper, based on the investigation data on the spot about the emigrants from Three Gorges Re-servior area, using the method of logit model estimation, analyzes the influence on immigrant settlement adaptation by relevant variables such as the personal characters of decision-maker or head of emigrant household, the features of the emigrant households and immigrant settlement social relation and migration policy.The research shows that such emigrant household’ s features as the sex of migrant household’ s decision-maker, age, education background, the number of emigrants, the major income source and the average income per person, such social relation features as contact with the local residents and intermarriage with the local people, and migration policy such as settlement areas, settlement locations, settlement way, the follow-up support policy and vocational training, are the major fac-tors of influencing the migrant adaptation.How to adjust the future migrant settlement policy maybe starts from per-spectives such as priority given to enhancing the migrant household head’ s education as well as vocational compe-tence improvement, the integral emigration of the whole family, encouraging the immigrants to blend socially with the local residents, choosing the more developped areas economically than the emigrant ones as the settlement are-as, more respect to the emigrants’ wills about settlement way, and the implementation of the emigrants’ follow-up support.