乌鲁木齐河流域积雪面积变化及其对径流的影响

积雪面积是干旱区分布式水文模型的重要输入因子,为了研究其与径流间的关系,基于MODIS数据提取乌鲁木齐河流域英雄桥站以上积雪面积,分析了流域近年来积雪面积变化特征,采用偏相关分析法阐明了降水和气温变化对积雪面积的影响,并利用多元逐步回归与通径分析研究了径流同积雪面积、降水、气温间的关系。结果表明:(1)流域积雪面积12月份达到最大,7月份达到最小,多年积雪面积变化呈不明显下降趋势;(2)气温对积雪面积的变化较降水更加敏感;(3)流域内各因素间的相互影响促进了径流的产生。

Snow-covered Area Change and Impact on Runoff in Urumqi River Basin

The snow-covered area is an important factor of the distributed hydrological model for arid area. In order to study the relationship between snow-covered area and runoff, this paper used the snow-covered area above the Yingxiongqiao station based on MODIS data. The characteristics of the snow-covered area in recent years were analyzed. The effect of precipitation and tem - perature variation on the snow-covered area was analyzed by using partial correlation analysis. The relationship between runoff and snow-covered, precipitation and temperature was studied by using multiple stepwise regression and path analysis. The results show that (1) the biggest and smallest snow-covered area appear in December and July; (2) the temperature is more sensitive to the change of snow-covered area; (3) the interaction between the various factors in the river basin promote the generation of runoff.