Long-term density evolution through semi-analytical and differential algebra techniques

This paper introduces and combines for the first time two techniques to allow long-term density propagation in astrodynamics. First, we introduce an efficient method for the propagation of phase space densities based on differential algebra (DA) techniques. Second, this DA density propagator is used in combination with a DA implementation of the averaged orbital dynamics through semi-analytical methods. This approach combines the power of orbit averaging with the efficiency of DA techniques. While the DA-based method for the propagation of densities introduced in this paper is independent of the dynamical system under consideration, the particular combination of DA techniques with averaged equations of motion yields a fast and accurate technique to propagate large clouds of initial conditions and their associated probability density functions very efficiently for long time. This enables the study of the long-term behavior of particles subjected to the given dynamics. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, the evolution of a cloud of high area-to-mass objects in Medium Earth Orbit is reproduced considering the effects of solar radiation pressure, the Earth’s oblateness and luni-solar perturbations. The method can propagate 10,000 random fragments and their density for 1 year within a few seconds on a common desktop PC.