金沙江鲁地拉电站水库区地质灾害易发性评价

西南高山峡谷区是地质灾害高易发区,通过对典型流域段地质灾害的分析研究,能更好地掌握金沙江流域地质灾害的分布规律。本文以鲁地拉电站库区为例,根据野外地质灾害调查分析结果,采用Logistic回归模型和GIS空间分析方法,评价各致灾因子的作用,经过遴选最终选取地表径流冲蚀强度、工程地质岩组、河谷形态、坡度、坡向5个与地质灾害相关性强的因子,进行地质灾害易发性分析,结果表明库区地质灾害易发性程度很高,高易发区占41%,主要集中在库首段及朵美附近,评价结果很好地反映了库区段地质灾害的现状,为有效防治库区地质灾害及后期库区灾害监测提供了科学依据。

Assessment of geo-hazards susceptibility in reservoir of Ludila Hydropower Station,Jinsha River

The high mountain gorge areas of Southwest China are areas where geo-hazards are easy-happening.By the research on geo-hazards in typical river sector,we can grasp the regularity of geo-hazards’ distribution in Jinsha River.This paper takes the reservoir of Ludila Hydropower Station for example,It is based on the analysis of surveying geo-hazards,and carefully considers the internal relations between the river and the geo-hazards using the Logistic regression model and GIS spatial analysis tools.Furthermore,the paper selects 5 key factors(independents) including the surface runoff erod,Engineering geology petrofabric,the shape of river valley,the grade of bank slope,the aspect of bank slope are well contributed to the occurrence of geo-hazards.The predicted result using a logistic model with key factors shows that geo-hazards susceptibility of reservoir is very high.High geo-hazards susceptibility areas accounte for 41% and mainly concentrate in the first sector of reservoir and around Duomei.The result can better illuminate the present features of the reservoir geo-hazards distribution.which can provided the scientific information for prevention of geological and monitor geo-hazards.