Standardized Precipitation Index Reconstructed from Turkish Tree-Ring Widths |
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Authors: | Email author" target="_blank">Ramzi?TouchanEmail author Gary?Funkhouser Malcolm?K?Hughes Nesat?Erkan |
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Institution: | (1) Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, U.S.A.;(2) Southwest Anatolia Forest Research Institute (SAFRI), Antalya, Turkey |
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Abstract: | May–July Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for the land area of most of Turkey and some adjoining regions are reconstructed
from tree rings for the period 1251–1998. The reconstruction was developed from principal components analysis (PCA) of four
Juniperus excelsa chronologies from southwestern and south-central Turkey and is based on reliable and replicable statistical relationships
between climate and tree ring growth. The SPI reconstruction shows climate variability on both interannual and interdecadal
time scales. The longest period of consecutive drought years in the reconstruction (SPI threshold ≤−1) is 2 yr. These occur
in 1607–1608, 1675–1676, and 1907–1908. There are five wet events (SPI threshold ≥+1) of two consecutive years each (1330–1331,
1428–1429, 1503–1504, 1629–1630, and 1913–1914). A 5-yr moving average of the reconstructed SPI shows that two sustained drought
periods occurred from the mid to late 1300s and the early to mid 1900s. Both episodes are characterized by low variability. |
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