| Abstract: | Surface solar irradiance (SSI) nowcasting (0–3 h) is an effective way to overcome the intermittency of solar energy and to ensure the safe operation of grid-connected solar power plants. In this study, an SSI estimate and nowcasting system was established using the near-infrared channel of Fengyun-4A (FY-4A) geostationary satellite. The system is composed of two key components: The first is a hybrid SSI estimation method combining a physical clear-sky model and an empirical cloudy-sky model. The second component is the SSI nowcasting model, the core of which is the derivation of the cloud motion vector (CMV) using the block-matching method. The goal of simultaneous estimation and nowcasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) is fulfilled. The system was evaluated under different sky conditions using SSI measurements at Xianghe, a radiation station in the North China Plain. The results show that the accuracy of GHI estimation is higher than that of DNI estimation, with a normalized root-mean-square error (nRMSE) of 22.4% relative to 45.4%. The nRMSE of forecasting GHI and DNI at 30–180 min ahead varied within 25.1%–30.8% and 48.1%–53.4%, respectively. The discrepancy of SSI estimation depends on cloud occurrence frequency and shows a seasonal pattern, being lower in spring–summer and higher in autumn–winter. The FY-4A has great potential in supporting SSI nowcasting, which promotes the development of photovoltaic energy and the reduction of carbon emissions in China. The system can be improved further if calibration of the empirical method is improved. |
