近40a甘肃省气象灾害对社会经济的影响

利用甘肃省近40 a的气温、降水、各种气象灾害和各种灾情、经济指标资料,分析了甘肃气候对全球气候变暖的响应、气象灾害对社会经济和农业的影响。得出全省平均气温为增温趋势;降水河西(以黄河为界)为增加趋势,河东减少趋势;干旱20世纪90年代在增加,而沙尘暴、冰雹、暴雨90年代在减少;极端气候事件增加;气象灾害对农业的影响明显,气象灾害受灾总面积与粮食单产呈明显的负相关,尤以干旱灾害对全省粮食产量的影响更为显著;洪灾造成的直接经济损失增加。

Impact evaluation of meteorological disaster on social economy in Gansu Provin ce in the past 40 years

In this paper,the response of climate change to global warming and the impacts of meteorological disasters on the social and economic development in Gansu Province are analyzed based on the data of temperature,precipitation,meteorological disasters,disaster situation and economic data in recent 40 years.The results reveal that the average temperature all over the province is in an increase trend,especially around cities,and the temperature increase extent decreases from the north to the south;precipitation is in an increase trend in the Hexi Corridor west from the Yellow River but in a decrease trend in the regions east from the Yellow River;in the 1990s,drought occurred more frequently,but the occurring frequencies of dust storms,hails and rainstorms were in a decrease trend;the extreme climatic events are in an increase trend.The impacts of meteorological disasters on agricultural production is serious,and there is a significant negative correlation between the disaster area of meteorological disasters(especially droughts) and the per unit area grain yield.Reduction of total grain yield is mainly caused by droughts.The economic loss caused by floods is in an increase trend.GDP can not directly reflect the area of meteorological disasters because of the climate change,scientific and technological development,effect of policies and low proportion of the economic loss caused by meteorological disasters.