公众气象服务支付意愿影响因素研究

基于中国气象局2008年调查数据，运用二分Logistic回归、最优尺度回归和判定树CRT模型分析了公众气象服务支付意愿的影响因素。结果表明：个体因素中年龄与文化程度对公众气象服务支付意愿（包括是否支付与支付多少）有显著影响，而性别因素只对支付多少有显著影响，对是否支付没有显著影响；收入因素对公众气象服务支付意愿有显著影响；关注程度、天气预报准确性、天气预报及时性、气象服务总体满意度对公众气象服务支付数额多少有显著影响，但影响程度很小；个体因素与收入因素对公众气象服务支付意愿影响程度较高，而心理因素影响程度很小。

Study of impact factors about willingness to pay for public meteorological service

Based on survey data in China Meteorological Administration in 2008, the impact factors about willing- ness to pay （WTP） for public meteorological service were analyzed by the methods of a binary Logistic regression, an optimal scaling regression and a classification regression tree （CRT）. The results show that the individual factors such as age and education level have significant influence on WTP including whether to pay （ WTP1 ） and how much to pay （WTP2）, while gender has only significant influence on WTP2 but not on WTP1. The income has sig- nificant influence to WTP. The four factors including concerning degree for weather forecast, accuracy and timeli- ness of prediction, overall satisfaction on meteorological service have significant influence on WTP2, while the im- pact is very small. The individual factors and income have greater impact on WTP compared with the psychological factors.