基于Logistic模型的三工河流域农户节水灌溉驱动力分析

基于三工河流域284份农户抽样问卷调查数据,总结了多因素作用下农户灌溉决策机理。自然因素是导致农户灌溉行为区域差异的根源,农户自身因素影响农户对灌溉和节水的认识,政府决策可有效调控农户决策行为。根据农户灌溉决策机理,选择耕地状况、政策管理、农户素质、家庭经济状况和农户当前灌溉特征5类因素,构建Logistic模型分析多因素与农户节水意愿的关系,得出影响农户选择节水灌溉的主要因子,按影响程度从大到小排序如下：灌溉水价>耕地区位>非农收入比重>耕地归属>农户对滴灌的了解程度>受访者性别>灌水量>家庭劳动力平均年龄>家庭耕地面积,并据此提出鼓励农户选择节水技术的建议。

Analysis on Driving Forces of Households’ Water-saving Irrigation Decision-making in the Sangonghe River Basin Using the Logistic Model

Based on the data obtained through the 284 households questionnaires investigation, we summarized the decision-making mechanism of households irrigation. Natural factors were the most fundamental factors leading to regional irrigation method differences. Farmers own conditions affected their awareness of irrigation methods and water conservation importance. Governments policies played an effective role in regulating households decision-making behavior. According to the understanding to decision-making mechanism, the land condition, irrigation policies, farmers qualities, households economic conditions and the households present irrigation methods were chosen to make a Logistic model to analyze the relations between the multiple factors and households willingness to save water. The results showed that the following factors were the main factors influencing households selection of water-saving technology, whatwater-savings more, their influence degrees were different, that was, water price>farmland patch location>proportion of non-farming income>ownership of farmland patch>comprehension degree on water-saving irrigation> interviewees gender>irrigation quantity>average age of labor>households farmland area. Then, some advices were put forward to encourage households to choose water-saving irrigation method.