近58a来玉树站气温变化特征

根据青海省玉树站近58 a (1951~2008年)的逐月气温资料,利用线性回归、小波分析、M ann-Kendall法和S/R分析等方法,分析了该站春、夏、秋、冬季及年平均气温的变化特征,结果表明:1)近58 a来玉树站各季节和年平均气温均经历了先降后升的阶段,整体呈现出上升趋势,其中春季气温上升最快的阶段出现在20世纪80到90年代,其它季节和年平均气温出现在20世纪末到21世纪初;2)各季及年平均气温普遍具有准5 a的年际振荡;3)各季和年平均气温突变普遍发生在上世纪90年代;4)根据S/R分析得出,未来一段时期玉树站气温依旧保持增暖趋势,尤其在秋、冬季的增温显著。

Temperature Variations of Yushu Meteorological Station in Recent 58 Years

According to the past 58 years (1951-2008) monthly temperature data of Yushu in Qinghai Province, using the linear regression, wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall and S/R analysis, the trends of the seasonal and annual mean temperature were studied.The results show that the phases of both the seasonal and the annual average temperature are firstly decreased and then increased, the linear trend is rising.Except spring is the fastest-rising phase in the 20th century 80 to 90 years, the fastest-rising stages are mostly appeared in the late 20th century to the 21st century, and the whole shows a rising trend.In addition, the seasonal and annual mean temperature both have quasi-periodic 5a oscillation besides a mutation phenomenon in the 90s, moreover, it will maintain the original warming trend in the future, especially in the autumn and winter.