广东省县域单元热带气旋灾害损失评估方法研究

利用2004—2014年广东省的热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone, TC)降水和大风资料以及TC造成的直接经济损失数据，通过TC经济灾损率的定义，研究了TC直接经济损失与TC降水和大风的关系，并建立评估模型。广东省沿海地区是TC降水和大风影响频繁地区，TC经济灾损率和受灾频次在广东西南部和东部沿海地区较大。TC经济灾损率与TC降水和大风之间存在较好的指数关系。由此得到不同等级经济灾损率对应的气象因素致灾阈值。利用此气象因素致灾阈值可以对县域单元的TC直接经济损失进行评估。对2004—2014年广东省TC造成的直接经济损失的模拟结果表明，该方法能较好地评估广东的县域单元TC经济损失。 

METHOD OF TYPHOON DISASTER LOSS ASSESSMENT FOR COUNTY-BASED UNITS IN GUANGDONG

The precipitation, high winds (with wind speed at least 10.8m/s) and direct economic losses caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) in Guangdong during 2004-2014are studied to disclose the relationships between the influence of TCs and meteorological factors, and build an assessment model for the influence of TCs. The seashore areas of Guangdong are affected frequently by the TCs precipitation and high winds and the economic loss rates and the disaster frequencies are much bigger in the southwestern and eastern seashore areas of Guangdong. There are good power law relations between the economic loss rates and the TCs precipitation and high winds. According to the power law relations, the meteorological condition threshold can be calculated for the different level of economic loss rates. Then the meteorological condition threshold can be used to assess the influence of TCs. The evaluations of economic loss rates by TCs influencing Guangdong using the meteorological condition threshold during 2004-2014 are compared with the actual economic loss rates. The results show that the assessments are reasonable, which means this method can be used to assess the influence of TCs in Guangdong.