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Seasonality and duration in extreme value distributions of significant wave height |
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| Authors: | Fernando J Mndez Melisa Menndez Alberto Luceo Raúl Medina Nicholas E Graham |
| Institution: | aOcean and Coastal Research Group, IH Cantabria, Universidad de Cantabria, Avda. de los Castros s/n, 39005 Santander, Spain;bDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Universidad de Cantabria, Avda. de los Castros s/n, 39005 Santander, Spain;cHydrologic Research Center, 12780 High Bluff Drive, #250, San Diego, CA 92130-3017, USA;dScripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design. |
| Keywords: | Extreme value distribution Likelihood Pareto distribution Peak over threshold Poisson process Seasonality Significant wave height Statistical model Wave height persistence |
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