自回归模型在矿山变形监测中的应用

变形监测的目的是针对不同的监测数据采用合适的数据处理方式,建立适当的模型,做出正确的预报,以减小事故的发生。回归模型是研究一个随机变量（因变量）和另一个或一些变量（自变量）关系的统计方法,它通常设置一些可以测量的变量为自变量建立回归方程来预测另外一些变量的变化趋势,是一种静态数据处理方式,但是在时间序列情况下,回归应该根据该变量自身以前的规律创建预测模型,这就是自回归模型,是一种动态数据处理方法,它特别适合于短期监测预报。

Application of Auto-regression Model in Mine Deformation Monitoring

The purpose of deformation monitoring is using proper way of data processing to establish an appropriate model and making the right prediction in order to reduce accidents.Regression model is a statistical method.It deals with a random variable or a number of variables and other variables.It usually uses some of the variables that can be measured as independent variables to predict the regression equation and predict the trend of the independent variables.It’s a static date processing method.But in the time-series situation,the regression should be based on itself to create forecasting model.It’s called the Auto-regression model.It is a dynamic data processing method,which is particularly suitable for short-term monitoring and forecasting.