库玛断裂带强震活动与地震空区研究

库玛断裂带作为青藏高原内部的一条强地震活动带, 1900年以来发生过3次7级地震,其中2次7级大震前均出现5级以上地震的背景空区,表明背景空区对该带大震具有中长期预报意义。最近一次背景空区业已形成,并出现与之配套的孕震空区,其演化图像符合强震孕育模式。研究发现,库玛断裂带中段M_L 3以上地震空区,对共和7级强震及周边200 km的强震有前兆意义。

Strong earthquakes along Kuma fault zone and seismicity gap

As strong seismic zone, three earthquakes with M_S 7 occurred along Kumafault zone since 1900, and before two strong shocks M_S ≥ 5 earthquakes formed the background gap. It shows that background gas is of significance in the prediction of strong shock along this zone. A background gas and a seism ogenic gap have formed in the same place, and their evolutionary patterns accord with the strong seism ogenic model. The seismogenic gap along Kumafault zone shows the precursory significance for the Gonghe earthquake with M= 7 and its strong after shocks. It may be a stress window of strong shock breed.