中国居民碳排放时空特征及影响因素研究

基于中国30个省级单元人口、能源数据，运用SDA结构分解法，定量测度了1995-2014年居民碳排放的时空特征及影响因素。研究表明：除吉林外，其余各省居民碳排放呈增加态势，且区域分异程度呈现先降后升的变化特点；人均碳排放效率提高是居民碳排放量增加的主要因素，且历年贡献率呈增长趋势，效应高值区主要集中在北部地区；人口规模效应对居民碳排放增加的贡献率呈下降趋势，高值区主要分布于东南部，与胡焕庸线划分的人口密集区趋于一致；人口城镇化变化对居民碳排放变化具有双向效应，负向效应向东南部扩展，正向效应在北部凸起；依据各省差异，将各省划分为碳减排重点区、碳减排关键区、碳减排关注区，针对不同类型应采用差异化的碳减排模式。

Spatial and temporal characteristics of Chinese residents'carbon emissions and its influencing factors

Research on the residents'carbon emissions is one of the important foundations for exploring a green and low-carbon lifestyle and for promoting the construction of beautiful China.In the past,most studies on carbon emissions focused on the industrial sector,while less on the residents'carbon emissions in the life sphere.With the growth of population,the transfer of a huge number of people from rural areas to cities and the change of residents'lifestyle,the residents'carbon emissions have changed.Based on the data of population and residential energy consumption,this study used the carbon emission coefficient method to estimate the residents'carbon emissions from 1995 to 2014.According to the dynamic changes of the total residents'carbon emissions in China,the years of 1995,2005 and 2015 were identified as the special time points in which the residents'carbon emissions in all provinces were visualized by Arcgis,and the classification was conducted using Quartile classification method to analyze the spatial differences and evolution characteristics of residents'carbon emissions in each province.The SDA structural decomposition method was used to quantitatively measure the effect of population size,population structure (urbanization) and per capita carbon emission efficiency on the change of residents'carbon emissions.The results indicated that except for Jilin,the rest of provinces showed an increasing trend for the residents'carbon emission,and the degree of regional differentiation presented the characteristics of decreasing first and then rising; the improvement of per capita carbon emission efficiency was the main factor for the increase of residents'carbon emissions,and the contribution ratio was growing year after year with the high values distributed mainly in the northern regions.The contribution of population size effect to the increase of residents'carbon emission showed a decreasing trend.The high value area was mainly distributed in the southeast,which was consistent with the densely populated area divided by Hu Huanyong line.The change of urbanization rate had a two-way effect on the change of residents'carbon emissions.The negative effect was spread to the southeast and the positive effect was risen in the north.According to the provincial differences,three categories were defined as the critical carbon emission reduction zone,key carbon emission reduction zone and carbon emission reduction focus area.For the critical emission reduction areas,the government should focus on improving the quality of urbanization and reducing per capita carbon emissions efficiency; for the key emission reduction areas,the government should actively promote the residents to use clean energy; for the carbon emission reduction focus areas,the government should foster residents'low-carbon awareness and pay attention to the problem of increasing residents' carbon emissions in urban fringe areas and urban agglomerations due to urbanization.