多维邻近性、贸易壁垒与中国—世界市场的产业联系动态演化

随着中国经济步入新常态,中国嵌入世界生产网络的既有模式遭遇内部红利消失与外部贸易摩擦的双重困境,探讨中国同世界其他国家/地区间的产业联系特征及其动态演化机制,对寻找中国产业对外联系的破局方向至关重要。基于1995—2014年世界投入产出表数据库,从国家尺度刻画世界产业相互依赖网络,并着重关注中国在这一格局中的角色与地位演变。研究发现：① 1995—2014年中国从世界生产联系网络的边缘国家演变成为沟通东亚、东南亚地区与其他新兴市场的桥梁,并从美欧主干联系的“局外人”升级成为链接欧美产业网络的重要枢纽。而2015—2019年中国对外产业联系拓展逐渐进入曲折发展的瓶颈期。② 从供给角度看,中国基础资源行业和制造业正不断嵌入世界生产网络的供给侧。相比之下,中国大部分服务业对世界产业网络的供给能力低于世界平均水平。③ 从需求看,中国作为“世界工厂”与基础设施建设大国,在制造业与基建方面具有世界性的影响力,然而中国的交通、物流、金融等生产型服务业的国际影响力在2005年后逐步下降。④ 中国产业获取本地附加值总体持续增长,但附加值捕获的效率较低。在此基础上,本文探讨了多维邻近性、贸易保护对中国—世界产业联系的作用,发现：中国对外产业联系的演化受地理、认知、社会与制度4个维度的邻近性影响并形成路径依赖。其中地理与认知邻近性的影响最为广泛,而社会与制度邻近性仅对产业联系形式更加复杂的中间生产联系与发展较为成熟的最终需求联系有促进作用,技术贸易壁垒与反倾销调查会削弱中国对外产业联系;卫生安全检疫措施对最终市场需求联系有显著削弱作用,而对中间产品生产联系的作用并不显著。综上所述,生产型服务业与总体附加值获取效率是中国对外产业联系拓展的潜力方向,而内销—出口平衡与多元化的产业发展策略是中国对外产业联系拓展的合理举措。

Multi-dimensional proximity,trade barriers and the dynamic evolution of industrial linkages between China and the world market

As China enters the new normal era,the existing mode of joining into the global production network is confronted with the dual dilemma of internal dividend disappearance and external trade frictions.It is very important to explore the characteristics and driving forces of dynamic evolution of industrial linkages between China and other countries or regions in the world.Based on the world input-output table database from 1995 to 2014,this study depicts the global industrial interdependence network from the national scale using input—output analysis and social network analysis,and focuses on the evolution of China’s role and position in this pattern using spatial econometric model.The main findings are as follows:China has become a bridge between East Asia and Southeast Asia and other emerging markets,thus upgrading from an "outsider" to an important hub in the industrial network linking Europe and the United States.However,from 2015 to 2019,the expansion of China’s foreign industrial linkages has gradually reached a plateau.From the perspective of supply side,China’s resource and manufacturing industries are constantly embedded in the supply side of the global production network.However,the overall external supply capacity of most China’s service industry is relatively below global average.In terms of demand,China,as the "factory of the world" and a major country in infrastructure construction,has an increasing global influence in manufacturing and infrastructure.Nevertheless,the international influence of productive services like Transportation,Logistics and Finance has been declining since 2005.The Chinese industries obtain the local added value overall to continue to grow,but the efficiency of the added value capture is low.On this basis,this study explores the influence of multidimensional proximities and trade protectionism on China-global industrial linkages and their value added.Among them,the geographical and cognitive proximity has the most extensive influence,while the social and institutional proximities only promote and strengthen the intermediate production linkage with more complex forms of industrial linkages and final demand linkages.However,technical barriers and anti-dumping investigation have weakened China’s foreign industrial links.The sanitary and phytosanitary measures have a significant weakening effect on the final demand linkage,but not on the intermediate product production.To sum up,the upgrading of production-oriented service industry and the efficiency of the acquisition of overall added value are the potential directions for the expansion of China’s foreign industrial linkages,while the construction of domestic industrial cycle and industrial diversification are the reasonable measures for the expansion of China’s foreign industrial linkages.