中国流动人口的跨等级流动及其对流入城市住房选择的影响

妥善解决流动人口在流入城市的住房问题是实现流动人口市民化和提高新型城镇化发展质量的关键。本文基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,揭示了流动人口的跨等级流动格局,并探讨了跨等级流动对流动人口在流入城市住房选择的影响。研究发现：① 流动人口以跨等级向上流动为主,其中向上跨三级、两级流动的比例较大;② 不同流出地的流动人口在流入城市的住房选择存在显著差异,流出城市的人均GDP和平均房价越高,流动人口在流入城市获得住房产权的概率越大;③ 流入城市的平均房价越高,流动人口获得商品房的概率越低,随着流入城市人均GDP的增加,流动人口购买商品房的概率先增后降,而购买不完全产权房的概率则恰恰相反;④ 随着流动人口跨越城市等级的增加,其获得住房产权的概率降低,而租赁正规住房的可能性增大。研究结果有助于深化理解流动人口在流入城市住房选择的地理根源,对进一步优化面向流动人口的住房政策具有参考意义。

Hierarchical migration patterns of China’s floating population and their impact on the housing choices

Access to homeownership profoundly affects floating population’s social integration in the destination city and,in the long term,wealth accumulation.While housing differentiation within China’s floating population has received increasing attention in the past two decades,the varied housing outcomes of the floating population experiencing different geographic mobility have been rarely investigated.Using data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey,this study employs logistic regression models to examine the association between migrants’ hierarchical migration patterns and their housing outcomes in the destination city.The results show that the migration patterns of China’s floating population are mostly featured by moving up along the urban hierarchy.There are significant disparities in housing outcomes among floating population with different origins and destinations.Migrants originating from cities with higher gross domestic product(GDP) per capita and average housing prices are more capable to afford a home in the destination city.Moving to cities with higher average housing prices implies fewer opportunities to purchase local commodity housing.As GDP per capita in destination cities increases,the probability of floating population purchasing commercial housing increases first but then decreases,while the probability of purchasing housing with incomplete property rights exhibits the opposite phenomenon.Furthermore,migrants making larger upward movements are less likely to own a home in the destination city,but more likely to rent formal housing.This study highlights the role of geographical mobility between different origins and destinations in affecting floating population’s housing outcomes in the destination city and furthermore provides insight into understanding housing inequality.