中国旅游产业发展间接就业带动能力测算及其时空差异

旅游产业快速发展不仅直接就业效应大,而且对其他行业的间接就业带动能力更为显著。本文结合旅游剥离系数和投入产出分析方法,构建旅游产业发展的间接就业带动能力测算模型,利用Dagum基尼系数分解其时空差异演变,基于中国31个省（自治区、直辖市）的面板数据对旅游产业发展间接就业带动能力及其时空差异进行实证测算。结果显示：中国旅游产业间接就业带动规模从2000年的2684.6万人增长到2019年的4894.9万人,旅游产业发展间接就业带动能力显著提高;各省份旅游产业发展间接就业带动能力存在明显差距,总体上表现为东、中、西部地区依次递减;纵向比较来看,旅游间接就业带动作用有效突破了胡焕庸线的约束,但带动作用较强的地区主要集中在胡焕庸线东南半壁;对不同产业的间接就业带动能力差异显著,其中,对农林牧渔业和制造业的间接就业带动能力最突出;旅游行业内部比较来看,旅游交通运输、仓储和邮政通讯业、旅游住宿和餐饮业的间接就业带动能力处于主导地位;旅游间接就业带动能力总体差异呈收敛趋势,这种总体差异主要来源于地区间差距。

Measurement of the driving capacity of tourism industry on indirect employment and its spatio-temporal differences in China

The rapid development of tourism industry has a great effect not only on direct employment, but also on indirect employment in other industries. Combined with tourism stripping coefficient and input-output analysis method, this paper constructs a measurement model of tourism industry that drives indirect employment. Based on this, the Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method is used to analyze the evolution of spatio-temporal differences in the driving capacity of tourism industry on indirect employment. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities, hereafter provinces) in China, an empirical calculation is performed in this paper to show the capacity of tourism industry in driving indirect employment and its spatio-temporal differences. The research results are presented as follows: Firstly, the population of indirect employment driven by tourism industry surged from 26.846 million in 2000 to 48.949 million in 2019, which enhanced the driving capacity of tourism industry on indirect employment. Secondly, there were significant differences in the driving capacity between provinces. In terms of spatial distribution, the driving capacity of tourism industry on indirect employment decreased in a descending order (namely the eastern > the central > the western region). As for temporal distribution, such a driving capacity effectively broken through the blockade of Hu Huanyong Line. However, the regions where the tourism industry had strong driving capacity on indirect employment were still concentrated to the southeast of the Hu Huanyong Line. Lastly, there were striking differences in the role of tourism in driving indirect employment in different industries. The tourism industry has the most prominent driving capacity on indirect employment in such industries as farming, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and manufacturing. According to the internal comparison of the tourism industry, the driving capacity of tourism transportation, warehousing and postal communications, tourism accommodation and catering industry is in the leading position. The overall gap in the driving capacity of tourism on indirect employment in China is convergent, which mainly results from the inter-regional gap.