| 南北地震带年最高震级序列的建模和预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵卫明.南北地震带年最高震级序列的建模和预测[J].西北地震学报,1993(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵卫明 |
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| 作者单位： | 宁夏地震局 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文应用A.G.Ivakhnenko提出的数据处理的分组方法的基本思想,以生物有机体演化的方式,给出了一种自动选择模型的最佳形式和参数,构造高阶自回归模型的方法,并用此方法对南北地震带年最高震级序列做了建模和预测检验,效果较好。利用上述方法,本文还对南北地震带未来5年最高震级作了预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 南北地震带 GMDH方法 震级预报 |
ESTABLLSHING MODEL AND PREDICTION ON THE HIGHEST YEARLY MAGNITUDE SEQUENCE OF THE NORTH-SOUTH SEISMIC BELT |
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| Zhao Weiming.ESTABLLSHING MODEL AND PREDICTION ON THE HIGHEST YEARLY MAGNITUDE SEQUENCE OF THE NORTH-SOUTH SEISMIC BELT[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1993(4). |
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| Authors: | Zhao Weiming |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, by using the basic idea of the method of dividing into groups in data handling proposed by A.G.Ivakhnenko, according to the way of creature-organism evolution, we have given a method which can select the best form and parameter of the model automatically and construct the higher order autoregression model. Using this method, a trial of establishing model and prediction on the highest yearly magnitude sequence of the North-South Seismic Belt is taken. And the highest magnitude of the North-South Seismic Belt is predicted in the future 5 vears. |
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| Keywords: | North-South Seismic Belt GMDH Method Magnitude Prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
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