开都河-孔雀河流域水资源承载力水平的综合评价与分析

以新疆开都河-孔雀河流域为例,利用熵值法分析原理建立了流域水资源承载力综合评价指标体系,对其进行了量化分析以及指标客观赋权,并得出研究区水资源承载力水平综合得分值.结果表明:开都河-孔雀河流域各县市的水资源承载力综合水平较低,且出现了下降趋势,而且空间差异显著.影响开都河-孔雀河流域水资源承载力水平变化的动力因子是开都河-孔雀河流域的产业结构和用水结构的双重不合理,并对水资源承载力产生较强的制动效应,用水效益的缓慢提升和水利设施建设投资的减少,也影响着流域水资源承载力水平的进一步提升.为了开都河-孔雀河流域水资源承载力水平提升和流域可持续管理,建议加强水源地和生态保护区建设,发展节水农业和高效用水灌溉技术,优化流域内产业结构和用水结构,提高用水效益,完善流域管理法规、法律条例,加大监督和执法力度,建设统一管理模式,建立科学而严格的管理机制.

Comprehensive Evaluation and Analysis on the Water Resources Carrying Capacity Levels in the Kaidu-Kongqi River Basin

This is a case study in Kaidu River-Kongqi River basin of Xinjiang.Most of the data come from the 《Bulletin of Water Resources in Xinjiang Autonomous Region》(2000 and 2008),《Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook》(2001 and 2009),《Xinjiang Municipality,County Building Statistical Yearbook》(2000 and 2008),and a few data collected by the authors.The water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system was established by using the principle of entropy analysis,including quantitative analysis and empowered objective indicators.The index system in the water resources carrying capacity was used to determine the weight,and used to eliminate subjective factors.Then,the comprehensive score of the water resources carrying capacity in the study area was obtained.Comprehensive evaluation score of each county and Municipality indicates that water resources carrying capacity in the river basin presents not only a downward changing trend but also a significant spatial difference.Using factor analysis and multiple linear regression models,the power factor affecting the change in water resources carrying capacity is obtained.The unreasonable relationship between industrial structure and water use structure results in a strong braking effect.Slowing water-use efficiency improvement and reduction of investment in water conservancy facilities also affect further enhancing capacity level of water resources.In order to enhance the level of water resources capacity and realize sustainable development,some useful ideas are presented.The ideas include strengthening the construction of water sources and ecological protection zones,developing water-saving agriculture and efficient water irrigation techniques,and optimizing the industrial structure and water utilization structure.It is necessary to improve water use efficiency,to improve watershed management regulations and laws,to strengthen supervision and law enforcement,in order to build a unified management model,and to establish a scientific and strict management mechanism.