铁路网规模测算方法体系与实证分析

通过对路网规模多种测算方法的比较,系统地建立了用于测算铁路网规模的方法体系;经比较分析,发现地理空间特征和经济社会指标是影响路网规模的基本因素。根据数据的可获得性和测算方法的适应性,选择连通度模型对中国铁路基础路网规模进行测算,引入空间运输绝对联系强度和首位联系度对快速路网规模进行测算,并结合GIS技术测定最终的铁路网规模。研究结果表明,为实现铁路服务的普适化,并解决主要运输通道运力紧张的困境,中国未来铁路网的合理规模应达到15万公里,较目前铁路网规模增长近1倍。

Methodology of estimating railway network scale: A case study of China

Railways are playing an increasingly important role in economic, social and urban development in China. Now the government expects to stimulate consumption by increasing investment especially in infrastructure due to the influence of the world economic crisis. This macro-economic setting provides a very good opportunity for the development of railways and high-speed railways. Firstly, this paper compares various methods of network scale estimation, such as network analysis method, transport demanding method, analogy method and statistical analysis method, and finds that different methods have different demands for data, and their adaptability is also different. However, in all these methods, geographical &; spatial characteristics and economic &; social indicators are the basic elements which decide the final scale of railway network. Based on the above conclusion, this paper builds a methodology of analyzing railway network scale, and considers the railway network of China will be composed of three parts, i.e., basic railway network, high-speed railway network and inter-city railway transit. This paper deals with the first two networks. Based on the available data and appropriate method, an accessibility model is chosen to estimate the basic scale of China's railway network, and absolute connection intensity and dominant flow analysis are used to estimate high-speed railway network scale. Finally the whole railway network scale is combined and decided with GIS method. The result shows that China's railway network scale is estimated to be 150,000 km, twice as long as it is now, and its spatial service will be greatly advanced.