数值预报产品检验和评估

通过国家级数值预报T213模式、EC模式下发产品对影响海南的热带气旋主观性检验结果表明,T213模式不管是对稳定路径还是转折路径的热带气旋在生成、移动路径以及登陆点都与实况相差很大;而EC模式对不管是转折还是稳定路径的热带气旋,都能够对移动路径、登陆点以及转折点都能够做出准确的预报;而在客观性检验的结果中也可看出T213模式和EC模式的预报能力的优劣性。因此,总体来说,在热带气旋的数值预报产品中,EC模式的预报能力明显比T213模式强,具有很高的参考意义。另外在温度场的预报中,T213模式相对于MM5模式,其预报能力具有一定的可信度,在日常预报中具有参考价值。

Numerical model output validation and assessment

Validity checks are done to T213 model and EC model outputs about tropical cyclones that infulenced Hainan.The subjective check shows that: no matter a TC has a steady track or a turning track,T213 model has greater error in the forecast of TC generation,motion and landing point,while EC model forecast the TC relatively correctly.And the result of objective check also shows the same forecast ability differences.Therefore,as a whole,of model outputs about tropical cyclone,EC model has better forecast skill compared with T213 model,and is significant to our operational forecast.On the other side,as to the surface maximum and minimum temperarture forecast,T213 model performs better than MM5 model,this higher reliability could be made use of in our routine forecast.