Prediction of maximum magnitude and original time of reservoir induced seismicity

Introduction Prediction of RIS includes earlier stage prediction and seismic tendency prediction. In earlier stage, the prediction is to predict the possibility and maximum magnitude of RIS before reservoir are built up. It is made up on the basis of geological condition and the definite method and the statistical model method are usually used. The definite method by analogy with geological condi-tion is to analyze and sum up the main conditions of RIS. Using the main conditions compared w…

Prediction of maximum magnitude and original time of reservoir induced seismicity

This paper deals with the prediction of potentially maximum magnitude and origin time for reservoir induced seismicity (RIS). The factor and sign of seismology and geology of RIS has been studied, and the information quantity for magnitude of induced seismicity provided by them has been calculated. In terms of information quan-tity the biggest possible magnitude of RIS is determined. The changes of seismic frequency with time are studied using grey model method, and the time of the biggest change rate is taken as original time of the main shock. The feasibility of methods for predicting magnitude and time has been tested for the reservoir induced seismicity in the Xinfengjiang reservoir, China and the Koyna reservoir, India.