洪湖分蓄洪区洪水淹没风险动态识别与可能损失评估

全球气候变化和社会经济快速发展,使长江流域面临越来越严重的防洪压力．在长江流域开展洪水淹没风险识别与洪水损失评估工作,对于长江流域洪水风险管理具有重大意义．本项研究以洪湖分蓄洪区为案例,采用基于GIS栅格数据整合于Arcview3．x的二维水文-水动力学模型进行洪水淹没风险动态识别,并且根据土地利用分类及其单位面积价值,建立洪水淹没损失函数,进行洪水淹没动态损失评估,建立了东洪湖分蓄洪区洪水淹没动态损失数据库,为东洪湖分蓄洪区的合理利用提供定量科学依据．洪水淹没动态风险识别基于数字高程模型进行,采用修正的1998年夏季洪水水位-时间水文过程线对模型参数进行调整,并以地面糙率反映不同地表覆盖形态对洪水演进过程的影响．

Dynamic inundation risk identification and estimation of the potential loss in Honghu flood diversion area,China

Under the background of global change and the rapid development of economy,the Yangtze River basin is confronted with rising pressure to prevent flood.The identification of inundation risks and the evaluation of poten- tial flood losses are of great significance in the Yangtze river basin.This study performs the identification of the in- undation risk in Honghu flood diversion area with a hydrological-hydraulic model based on raster data integrated into Arcview3.x.It processes an evaluation of the potential less in terms of land use types and damage functions,and finally builds an dynamic database of potential loss which can serve as scientific base for the management of Honghu flood diversion area.The identification of inundation risks is carried out based on a digital elevation model,calibra- ted with the waterstage-time curve derived from the summer flood in 1998 and manning roughness of each land use type.