基于ADCIRC-SWAN耦合模式的山东海洋牧场近30年风暴潮和海浪灾害特征分析

基于ADICRC-SWAN耦合模式,文章模拟了山东半岛1985— 2017年的61场风暴潮过程,研究了佳益、明波、富瀚3个海洋牧场的增水与有效波高的分布特征。通过分析3个海洋牧场的风暴增水与有效波高的年极值序列得出,台风风暴潮发生次数最多,但强度没有明显的规律;温带气旋频率最低,但引起的平均增水较高。寒潮引起的风暴潮主要在明波海洋牧场形成高增水,同时在佳益海洋牧场形成大浪。以年极值序列为基础,利用Gumbel极值分布计算了出3个海洋牧场的百年一遇增水与有效波高,增水在明波最高,在佳益最低,而有效波高则相反。进一步考虑波高与增水的联合概率分布,佳益海洋牧场的百年一遇有效波高在增水为50 cm时降低至6.5~7.1 m,在增水150 cm的情况再降至3.9~4.6 m;富瀚海洋牧场的波高在50 cm增水条件下降幅比较明显,在水位增加到150 cm时变化不大,都在2.6~3.2 m;明波海洋牧场在增水为0,50 cm和150 cm时的波高在1.9~2.8 m,与考虑单变量极值情况差别不大。模拟结果对海洋牧场的风暴潮防灾减灾工作有一定参考价值。

Hazard analysis of storm surges for marine ranchings in the Shandong Peninsula in the past three decades

In this study, advanced circulation and nearshore wave simulation models were combined to simulate 61 storm surge events from 1985 to 2017 in the Shandong Peninsula. The spatial distribution of surge and significant wave height (SWH) was analyzed in three marine ranchings (Jiayi, Mingbo, and Fuhan). The annual maximum surge and SWH time series revealed that typhoons occur most frequently, but their intensity has no obvious rule. Extratropical cyclones had the lowest frequency of occurrence but caused the greatest average surge. Cold airs primarily caused high surges in Mingbo and large waves in Jiayi. The Gumbel distribution was used to calculate the storm surge and SWH with a 100-year recurrence. The results revealed that Mingbo and Jiayi had the highest and lowest surges, respectively, while the SWH had the opposite distribution pattern. When the coupled effect of surge and wave height was considered, the SWH of Jiayi decreased to 6.5-7.1 m when the surge was 50 cm and then to 3.9-4.6 m when the surge was 150 cm. The SWH of Fuhan considerably decreased when the surge was 50 cm but only slightly decreased when the surge was 150 cm, with all values ranging from 2.6 to 3.2 m. The SWH of Mingbo was not considerably different regardless of surges of 0, 50, or 150 cm, all ranging from 1.9 to 2.8 m. The simulation results are valuable for disaster prevention and mitigation of storm surges in marine ranching.