适宜尺度区间上的多尺度区域泥石流危险性评价

泥石流灾害及其孕灾环境具有高阶模糊性,现有的模型和方法在表示和分析泥石流灾害时存在明显的尺度效应。首先提出了我国泥石流危险性评价的尺度模型,通过尺度分析的方法分析了孕灾因子的适宜尺度区间。然后基于区间II-型模糊集表示孕灾因子的高阶模糊隶属度,以此描述泥石流及其孕灾环境的复杂性;以区间权重描述各孕灾因子的重要性,并提出了适宜尺度区间上的危险性评价方法。试验表明,这种方法能够克服许多单尺度分析方法的缺陷,在泥石流危险性评价过程中能充分利用孕灾因子在适宜尺度区间上的可能状态,能顾及专家的对孕灾因子重要性评价的不确定性,评价结果比较客观。

Multi-Scale Regional Debris Flow Hazard Assessment on Fitting Scale Interval

Higher order vagueness is a common attribute of debris flow disasters and their environment,and existing models and assessment methods for describing and analyzing debris flows disasters have scale effect.The scale model of Chinese debris flow hazard assessment is proposed,and fitting scale intervals of relative factors are analyzed by different scaling analysis methods.The high order fuzzy membership functions of factors are developed by interval type-II fuzzy set and are used to describe the complex of debris flow and their environment.The weight of each factor is described by interval weight.And the hazard assessment method is developed on fitting scale intervals.The results show that the method can overcome some faults of single scale methods.And the method is objective becuase it can use all possible status of factors in their fitting scale interval and consider the uncertainty of weights produced by exports for different factors.