国际温室气体减排情景方案比较分析

在整理、介绍主要国际组织、国家、研究机构和一些学者所提出的温室气体减排情景方案、减排目标和设想的基础上,对当前国际上主要的温室气体减排情景方案的温室气体减排目标、大气温室气体浓度目标和温度控制目标进行了归纳、比较和综合分析。研究结果表明：①国际组织和主要国家对温度升高的控制目标总体以2℃为主,即到21世纪末,将大气温度控制在不高于工业革命前2℃的范围内;②国际组织和主要国家的温室气体减排方案一般都倾向于在2050年将大气温室气体浓度控制在450×10^-6~550×10^-6CO₂e（二氧化碳当量）的范围内,但各个方案中有关具体的减排责任分配、减排措施和减排量分歧仍然较大;③在确定温室气体减排目标和减排配额时,国际组织和主要国家一般都按照“共同但有区别”的原则,倾向于为发达国家制定减排目标,但也有个别方案认为发展中国家也应承担量化的减排义务。

Review of the International Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Scenario Programs

On the basis of sorting out and introducing the greenhouse gas emission reduction program, targets and assumptions that were put forward by the major international organizations, countries, research institutions and some scholars, the paper summarized, compared and comprehensively analyzed the main GHG emission reduction targets, atmospheric concentrations targets of GHG, and temperature control targets of the current international GHG mitigation program. The results revealed that: ①the general control goal of temperature increment proposed by international organizations and major countries was 2 ℃, that is, by the end of the 21st century, the air temperature will be controlled at no higher than 2℃ at the level of preindustrial revolution; ② the GHG mitigation program proposed by international organizations and major countries generally tended to control the atmospheric concentrations of GHG at 450×10^-6~550×10^-6CO₂e, and there were still large differences in the specific allocation of responsibilities, mitigation measures and emission reductions among each mitigation program; ③when determining the GHG emission reduction targets and allowances, the international organizations and major countries were generally in accordance with the “common but differentiated” principle, tending to set emission reduction targets for developed countries. However however, individual programs considered it necessary for developing countries to take quantified emission reduction commitment obligations.