| 过去2000a中国东部冬半年温度变幅与周期 |
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| 引用本文： | 葛全胜,郑景云,刘健.过去2000a中国东部冬半年温度变幅与周期[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(Z1):26-30. |
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| 作者姓名： | 葛全胜 郑景云 刘健 |
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| 作者单位： | Ge Quansheng（Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China）
Zheng Jingyun（Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China）
Liu Jian（Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China） |
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| 摘 要： | The amplitude and rhythm of temperature changes at inter-decadal and inter-centennial timescale were studied, based on the winter-half year temperature change series reconstructed from historical phenological events in eastern China for the past 2000 years, together with the temperature change simulation from ECHO-G model for the past 1000 years, and the quasi-periods of temperature fluctuation were discussed by using wavelet analysis. The results indicate: 1) the maximal amplitude of winter half-year temperature change in eastern China at decadal and centennial scale, was above 2℃ and 0.5-1.0℃ respectively. The reconstructed result indicates that the amplitude of warming during the 20th century was identical with the maximum amplitude before the 20th century in eastern China, but the simulated result suggests that the amplitude of warming has exceeded the maximum amplitude. 2) The rhythms of temperature change at centennial to millennial scale in eastern China were about 100-year, 250-year, 400-year, 600-year and 1000-year. The 20th century, the 1st-3rd century and the 9th-13th century were warm peaks at inter-centennial scale as well as at millennial scale. It is implicated that the warming during the 20th century should be attributed to not only anthropogenic effect, but also natural climate variation.
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| 关 键 词： | winter half-year temperature change amplitude |
| 文章编号： | 1673-1719(2007)Suppl.-0026-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年11月3日 |
Amplitude and Rhythm of Winter Half-year Temperature Change in Eastern China for the Past 2000 Years |
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| Ge Quansheng,Zheng Jingyun,Liu Jian.Amplitude and Rhythm of Winter Half-year Temperature Change in Eastern China for the Past 2000 Years[J].Advances in Climate Change,2007,3(Z1):26-30. |
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| Authors: | Ge Quansheng Zheng Jingyun Liu Jian |
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| Abstract: | The amplitude and rhythm of temperature changes at inter-decadal and inter-centennial timescale were studied, based on the winter-half year temperature change series reconstructed from historical phenological events in eastern China for the past 2000 years, together with the temperature change simulation from ECHO-G model for the past 1000 years, and the quasi-periods of temperature fluctuation were discussed by using wavelet analysis. The results indicate: 1) the maximal amplitude of winter half-year temperature change in eastern China at decadal and centennial scale, was above 2℃ and 0.5-1.0℃ respectively. The reconstructed result indicates that the amplitude of warming during the 20th century was identical with the maximum amplitude before the 20th century in eastern China, but the simulated result suggests that the amplitude of warming has exceeded the maximum amplitude. 2) The rhythms of temperature change at centennial to millennial scale in eastern China were about 100-year, 250-year, 400-year, 600-year and 1000-year. The 20th century, the 1st-3rd century and the 9th-13th century were warm peaks at inter-centennial scale as well as at millennial scale. It is implicated that the warming during the 20th century should be attributed to not only anthropogenic effect, but also natural climate variation. |
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| Keywords: | winter half-year temperature change amplitude rhythm the past 2000 years eastern China |
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