广东省耕地面积变化的宏观驱动机制研究

主要研究了广东省改革开发近２０年来耕地面积的减少过程，讨论了经济、人口等因素对耕地变化的影响机理，得出以下主要结论：（１）经济增长是影响广东省耕地面积变化的主要宏观驱动因子，耕地快速减少在发生时间上与经济的“过热”增长基本同步；在空间分布上具有半环带状结构的特点，与地区间经济发展速度和水平的差异相一致．（２）改革开放以来，广东省经济的高速增长是以大量的自然资源消耗为代价的（以耕地资源为代表），经济

MACRO-DRIVING MECHANISM FOR CHANGES IN CULTIVATED LAND AREA IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE, CHINA

For the past 20 years of the reform and opening to the outside world, the cultivated land area has decreased in Guangdong Province. The mechanism for the effect of the economy and population on the change in the cultivated land area is dealt with in this paper. The main conclusions are shown below: (1) The economic growth is the dominant macro_driving factor in decrease of cultivated land area in the Guangdong Province. The rapid decrease of cultivated land area coincided in time with the overheated economic growth resulting form the direct investment in fixed assets. The semi_concentric ring_like spatial distribution patterns for the decrease in arable land matched the differences in speed and scale of economic growth between different regions of the Guangdong Province. (2) The high economic growth rate in the Guangdong Province registered since the reform and opening to the outside world has been created at the cost of a large consumption of natural resources, especially of the arable land. This economic growth is characteristic of the infant industry.