An inspection of the long-term behaviour of the range of the daily geomagnetic field variation from comprehensive modelling

This paper attempts to reveal whether long-term trends in the ionosphere are reflected in the amplitude range of the geomagnetic daily variation recorded at ground level. The smooth and regular variation observed in the magnetograms on magnetically quiet days is induced by the ionospheric currents flowing in the dynamo region. So it is likely that trends in the conductivity or in the dynamics of this region could produce changes in the current densities, and consequently in the range of the geomagnetic variation. The crucial aspect is how to separate the changes produced by the geomagnetic activity itself, or by secular changes of the Earth's magnetic field, from the part of the variation produced by factors affecting trends in the ionosphere, which could have an anthropogenic origin. To investigate this, we synthesized for several geomagnetic observatories the daily ranges of the geomagnetic field components with a comprehensive model of the quiet-time, near-Earth magnetic field, and finally we removed the synthetic values from the observed ranges at those observatories. This comprehensive model accounts for contributions from Earth's core, lithosphere, ionosphere, magnetosphere and coupling currents, and, additionally, accounts for influences of main field and solar activity variations on the ionosphere. Therefore, any trend remaining in the residuals, assuming that all the contributions mentioned above are properly described and thus removed by the comprehensive model, should reflect the influence of other sources. Results, based on series of magnetic data from observatories worldwide distributed, are presented. Trends in the X and Z components are misleading, since the current system changes in form as well as in intensity, producing changes of the focus latitude in the course of a solar cycle and from one cycle to another. Some differences exist between the long-term trends in the Y component between the real and modelled ranges, suggesting that other non-direct solar causes to the amplitude changes of the solar quiet geomagnetic variation should not be ruled out. Nevertheless, the results also reflect some short-comings in the way that the comprehensive modelling accounts for the influence of the solar activity on the range of the daily geomagnetic variation.