| 华南前汛期降水预测模型及其预测试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄颖,金龙.华南前汛期降水预测模型及其预测试验[J].热带气象学报,2011(5):753-757. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄颖 金龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 广西壮族自治区气象减灾研究所， 广西 南宁 530022;广西壮族自治区气候中心，广西 南宁 530022 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局气象所技术推广项目(CMATG2008M49); 国家自然科学基金(40675023); 广西重点自然科学基金项目(0832019Z)共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 将中国华南区域分为东、西2个区，对每个区(8个站)的前汛期(4—6月)平均降水量作自然正交展开(EOF)，选取各区累积方差贡献超过75%的前4个主分量作为预报分量。再利用偏最小二乘回归方法结合均生函数方法，提出一种同时考虑预报量自身显著变化周期和前期物理量因子对预报量未来变化影响的预报模型，分别建立东、西区前汛期平均降水量的偏最小二乘回归预报方程。试验结果表明，新的预报模型的预报效果比单纯采用前期物理量因子的逐步回归模型更好，并且其预报能力的提高具有合理的分析依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 华南前汛期降水 偏最小二乘回归 均生函数 预测模型 |
PREDICTION MODEL FOR ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CHINA AND PREDICTION TESTS |
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| HUANG Ying,JIN Long.PREDICTION MODEL FOR ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CHINA AND PREDICTION TESTS[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2011(5):753-757. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Ying JIN Long |
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| Institution: | HUANG Ying1,JIN Long2 (1.Guangxi Research Institute of Meteorologcal Disasters Mitigation,Nanning 530022,China,2.Guangxi Climate Center,China) |
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| Abstract: | Mean precipitation during the annually first rainy season(April-June) of South China(divided into an east and west region with eight stations in each) was studied using the Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) method,and the first four principal components in each region,accounting for a total of more than 75% of the variability,were used as the predictands.A prediction model,which involves the significant period of a predictand and physical factors influencing the future changes of the predictand,was develop... |
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| Keywords: | precipitation of annually first rainy season in South China partial least-squares regression mean generating function prediction model |
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