基于LUCC1999-2014年新疆碳氧平衡估算

近年来新疆经济发展迅速，区域生态系统碳氧循环负荷加大，粗放的经济发展形势下生态系统碳氧平衡状态发生变化，生态环境质量出现下滑。本文利用土地变更数据和统计年鉴数据，结合相关研究的成熟模型，对新疆1999-2014年碳氧平衡状态进行估算与分析。结果表明：（1）土地变更中耕地、林地与牧草地面积变动对整体土地格局具有更强影响力，除牧草地外，各土地类型面积逐年稳定增加，其中园地与交通用地变化幅度较大。（2）新疆地区截止2014年末净CO₂排放量占总固定量的36.04%。（3）截止2014年末净O₂消耗量占总释放量的32.06%，自2003年以来氧消耗量已大于释放量，碳循环自1999年以来一直处于不平衡状态。（4）生态补偿机制表现出积极作用，CO₂固定量增长4.56%，O₂释放量增长13.81%。目前，新疆碳氧循环系统已处不平衡状态，虽然目前产生的负面影响仍很微弱，但长期以往势必对该区生态系统稳定造成不良影响，值得对其展开长期的连续观测。

Estimation of carbon and oxygen balance in Xinjiang based on LUCC 1999-2014

With the recent rapid urbanization in China, the carbon and oxygen cycling load in urban ecosystem had been increasing. It is very important to estimate the balance of carbon and oxygen. In this study, we used the data of land use and land cover change(LUCC) and the date from the statistical yearbooks, based on the carbon dioxide emissions model by Chinese Academy of Sciences, we estimated the carbon oxygen balance in Xinjiang, China from 1999-2014. The result showed as follows:(1) the change of cultivated land, forest land and grassland area has a greater influence on the overall land allocation, and the area of every land type was increased steadily annually except the grassland. The areas occupied by the gardens and the land areas for transportation were changed the most;(2) by the end of 2014, the net CO₂ emission accounted for 36.04% of the total fixed amount of carbon dioxide;(3)by the end of 2014, the net O₂ consumption accounted for 32.06% of the total release of O₂;(4) the ecological compensation mechanism has shown a positive effect. The fixed amount of CO₂ was increased by 4.56%, and O₂ emissions were increased by 13.81%. The carbon and oxygen cycle system was in a state of overloaded and unbalanced. Although the negative impact was still weak, but in the long run, it is bound to affect the stability of the ecosystem adversely.