基于GFI模型的西安市能源消费碳排放因素分解研究

基于2000-2015年西安市能源消费量数据，采用碳排放模型和GFI模型，分析区域能源消费碳排放量的变化趋势及影响因素，探讨西安市能源消费碳排放的拉动与抑制要素的互动关系及影响。结果表明：（1）西安市能源消费碳排放量总体呈现上升趋势，煤炭、原油消费为主要碳源。（2）能源利用结构正在发生转变，低能耗低碳排的能源消费量逐年上升，传统能源利用量正日趋减少。（3）经济发展要素和人口要素是西安市能源消费碳排放的主要拉动因素，能源结构要素拉动效应不显著，短期内不易改变；能源强度对能源消费碳排放具有抑制作用，且呈现增强态势，但效果不明显。最后提出西安市能源消费碳排放减排建议。

Carbon emission and factor decomposition of energy consumption in Xi'an City based on GFI model

Based on the consumption data of coal,coke,crude oil,gasoline,kerosene,diesel oil,fuel oil and natural gas in Xi'an City,Shaanxi Province,China from 2000 to 2015,carbon emission model and GFI model were used to analyze the change trend and influencing factors of carbon emissions from regional energy consumption to explore the interaction and influence of driving and inhibiting elements of energy consumption in Xi'an City.The results show as follows:(1) The carbon emissions from energy consumption in Xi'an City is increasing,and the consumption of coal and crude oil is the main carbon source. (2) The energy utilization structure is changing and the energy consumption of the low energy consumption and the low carbon emission is increasing annually. (3) Economic development factors and population factors are the main driving factors of the carbon emission from energy consumption in Xi'an City.The driving effect of energy structure elements is not significant and can not be changed in the short term.The energy intensity has the inhibitory effect on energy consumption and carbon emission,but the effect is not obvious.Finally,the proposals to reduce the carbon emission from the energy consumption in Xi'an City are put forth in the paper and the key is to change the existing energy consumption structure to improve energy efficiency.