| On unified analysis of uncertainty in seismic hazard assessment |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡聿贤 陈汉尧 |
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| 作者单位： | Institute of Geophysics，State Seismological Bureau，Beijing 100081，China |
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| 摘 要： | （胡聿贤，陈汉尧）Ｏｎｕｎｉｆｉｅｄａｎａｌｙｓｉｓｏｆｕｎｃｅｒｔａｉｎｔｙｉｎｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｈａｚａｒｄａｓｓｅｓｓｍｅｎｔ￥Ｙｕ－ＸｉａｎＨＵａｎｄＨａｎ－ＹａｏＣＨＥＮ（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｐｈｙｓｉｃｓ，ＳｔａｔｅＳｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇ...
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| 收稿时间： | 2 June 1993 |
| 修稿时间： | 4 December 1993 |
On unified analysis of uncertainty in seismic hazard assessment |
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| Yu-Xian HU and Han-Yao CHEN.On unified analysis of uncertainty in seismic hazard assessment[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition),1994,7(4):629-636. |
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| Authors: | Yu-Xian HU and Han-Yao CHEN |
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| Institution: | (1) Institute of Geophysics, State Seismological Bureau, 100081 Beijing, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, firstly the current analysis methods of uncertainties in seismic hazard assessment (SHA) are systematically reviewed, and the existing problems are pointed out. At the same time, it is proposed that the uncertainties can be divided into three kinds, namely, randomness, fuzziness and incompleteness of knowledge, and they can be treated in a unified way. Then, based on marked point process theory, a general equation for SHA is obtained, and a general equation for uncertainty analysis is also given on the basis of total probability theorem. Finally, the relationship between the proposed analysis method with those currently used both at home and abroad is discussed. The analysis shows that they are just the special case of the proposed method. |
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| Keywords: | seismic hazard assessment randomness fuzziness incompleteness of knowledge uncertainty |
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