泥石流防治工程效果后评价初探

防治工程效果后评价是泥石流灾害防治工作中的重要环节,一方面可用以检验防治工程质量、机理认识及方案选取合理性等,另一方面可以为后续泥石流灾害治理提供借鉴。依据大量西北地区典型泥石流防治工程实例,引入建设项目后评价理论,筛选出3项一级指标、10项二级指标,建立泥石流防治工程效果后评价指标体系如下:防治目标有效性,包括地形地貌变化度、固源物质固化度、疏导排水畅通度; 工程效果效益性,包括经济效益产出度、环境效益发挥度、社会效益明显度; 防治方案合理性,包括灾害机理认知度、参数取值安全度、防治工程协调度、工程实施难易度。采用层次分析法确定权值的模糊综合评判理论,建立泥石流防治工程效果后评价模型,以西安临潼大水沟泥石流防治工程为例,检验模型效果良好,具有一定的推广应用价值。

POST-EVALUATION MODEL ON EFFECTIVENESS OF DEBRIS FLOW CONTROL

Effectiveness post-evaluation of prevention engineering is an important link in debris flow control. It can be used in inspecting prevention engineering quality, discrimination of formation mechanism. It also can provide reference to debris flow prevention and control in the future. This paper refers to post-evaluation theory on construction projects and combines with many examples of debris flow control projects. Three primary indicators and ten secondary indices are selected to build effectiveness post-evaluation indices system of debris flow control. The three primary indicators include control effectiveness, beneficial result and rationality of control scheme. The ten secondary indices include change of topography, control of solid matter and effectiveness of guide control engineering, economic benefit mobilization of environmental benefit, social benefit, recognition of debris flow mechanism, parameters security, coordination among each control engineering and difficulty of implementation process. Then, effectiveness post-evaluation model of debris flow control project is established on the basis of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy process. At last, the model is applied to the verification and analysis of Dashuigou debris flow control project in Lintong, Xi'an.It concludes that the effectiveness of this model is fine and has the certain promotion application value.