黄河河源区变化环境下分布式水文模拟

将黄河河源区划分为38个自然子流域，利用分布式水文模型模拟径流量，采用唐乃亥水文站逐年、月实测径流资料进行验证，得到了较好的模拟效果。文章建立了5种土地覆被情景模型及24组不同气温和降水的情景组合，分别模拟不同情景下的年径流量。模拟结果表明，随着植被覆盖度的增加，流域年径流量减小，蒸发量增加。当气温降低2_oC且降水增加20%时，流域径流量增加得最大，增加39.69%。

Distributed Hydrological Simulation of the Source Regions of the Yellow River under Environmental Changes

After dividing the source regions of the Yellow River into 38 sub-basins, the paper made use of the distributed hydrologic model--SWAT model to simulate discharge with validation of the measured yearly and monthly runoff data from the Tangnag Hydrologic Station, and simulation results are satisfactory. Five land-cover scenario models and 24 sets of temperature and precipitation combinations were established to simulate annual runoff and runoff depth under different scenarios. The simulation shows that with the increase of vegetation coverage annual runoff increases and evapotranspiration decreases in the basin. When temperature decreases by 2oC and precipitation increases by 2%, basin runoff increases by 39.69%, which is the largest among all scenarios.