政府调控对华北平原农户抗旱行为的影响及效应

气候变化背景下干旱等极端天气事件频发给农业生产带来巨大挑战,明确农户是否采取相关应对措施及政府对其采取措施的影响,是进一步完善相关政策和引导农户增强自身响应能力建设的基础和关键。以华北平原为例,基于农户问卷调查数据,运用计量经济学方法,分析气候变化导致干旱频发背景下微观农户的响应行为,评估政府预警和政策支持是否影响农户响应行为以及其他因素如何影响其响应行为。结果表明：① 农户响应干旱态度积极,随干旱程度加深,农户选择采取响应措施的可能性增大。② 政府调控影响农户响应行为,但仅部分调控手段效果显著。政府提供预警信息能增加农户采取响应措施的可能性,然而只有当灾前及灾中、灾后同时预警时效果才显著;电视是目前最主要的预警媒介,但其并不显著改变农户响应行为,通过两种及以上形式的媒介传播预警信息效果最显著。此外,政府（尤其是乡镇及村级机构）的政策支持对农户旱灾响应行为有一定影响,但其效果在灾害年不如正常年明显;资金补贴的调控手段能明显促进农户采取响应措施的积极性,但绝大多数农户未获得任何机构支持。政府调控的结构及力度均有待提升及完善。③ 不同特质农户的响应行为不同。灌区内的农户,家庭耕地细碎度越小的农户,家庭农业成员越多的农户,更倾向于采取响应措施。本研究可为干旱化背景下制定相关调控政策提供科学参考。

Effect of governmental regulation on farmers' response behavior of drought resistance: An empirical study of North China Plain

Agricultural production will be confronted with more serious challenges under climate change. Understanding households' adaptive behaviors and the influence of government policies on them is the fundamental step to improve relevant policies for enhancing farmers' ability of adaptation against drought. The econometrics method is used in this study to evaluate the farmers’ adaptive behaviors and their influencing factors, especially the regulation of government policies, like early-warning and policy supports, based on a household and village survey in three provinces of the North China Plain (NCP). The results show that: (1) Most of households are apt to take adaptive measures when facing drought; and the more serious droughts are, the more the adaption measures will be taken. (2) The adaptation behaviors of farmers are affected by the regulation of government policies. The enthusiasm to take adaptations of households can be enhanced obviously by the governments' early-warning information and relevant policy supports, especially when the warning information is released by multiple channels and the subsides or multiple supports are provided by the township government and the village. However, most of the households have no support from governments at all levels. Besides, TV as the present main channel has very little effect on the farmers' hehaviors. (3) Adaptive behaviors vary along with households' characteristics. Farmers who live in irrigated areas, and who have more agricultural members in the family with larger cultivated land block acreage, are more inclined to take adaptive measures. These findings can provide references for the government to take measures to combat drought.