土地利用对街头抢劫影响的空间分异模式：以H市为例

选取H市中心城区2009年和2010年发生的街头抢劫案件为研究对象,构建地理加权泊松回归GWPR模型,探讨不同性质土地利用对案件影响的空间差异性。研究表明,各类用地与街头抢劫的关系存在显著的空间异质性。其中,位于中心区外围的传统居住区和部分新建社区等居住用地对街头抢劫存在显著的负向影响;商业服务业设施用地对街头抢劫的影响总体上显著性不强,但与其中的商业设施点类型密切相关,独栋高层的商业综合体会使犯罪数量下降,而临街商铺形式的商业设施点则是犯罪高发区域;工业用地仅对老城区的街头抢劫产生正向影响;公园绿地总体上与街头抢劫案件呈负相关性,但城市开敞绿地多的地方案件数量也较多;交通设施用地与街头抢劫的关系则受到交通设施、道路等级、路网形态的影响。最后通过聚类分析发现,土地利用对案件影响的主导因素的空间分异模式与不同的城市功能分区有一定的对应关系,可以对每个功能分区根据其街头抢劫发生的主导因素制定相应的土地利用规划导则。

The Spatial Differentiation Effect of Land Use on Street Robbery: A Case Study in H City,China

According to environmental criminology, built environment, especially land use may have some effects on the occurrence of criminal behaviour. The research on the relationship between crime and the land use can provide a new perspective on crime prevention from the angle of urban public security planning. However, most of the researches to date used the global model, and less to consider the factor of spatial differences, which can be improved by the Geographical Weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR). This article studies the effect of land use on the distribution of robbery cases happened in the urban area of H city by GWPR model. The results show that the correlation between residential land use and street robbery cases appears to be negative in traditional dwelling districts, resulting from the strong social bond between each resident; how the commercial and business land use affect the cases distribution depends on their spatial form, the individual high-rise commercial complex building attracts less street robberies because of better access control, while the street-side mode of commercial land use attracts more cases due to the convenient escaping routes for the criminal; the positive correlation between industrial land and cases only appears in the old city since the manufacturing industries have enhanced the complexity of social structure; tourism scenic spot with thorough security administration has negative effect on street robberies. But others lacking of residents and supervise tend to suffer from crimes; besides, relationship between the street robbery and transportation land use is affected by the transport-facilities, road-grades and road-network pattern. Generally, cases will gather in the regions near the faster road and those with high accessibility. And the traffic station areas have more potential criminal due to the heavy visitor flow. In addition, because of the diversified land use distribution all around the city, the primary land use factors to street robbery differ from each other in different regions. Therefore, on the basis of regression coefficients, the urban area of H city is divided into 6 parts by cluster, which are corresponding to several urban function areas, including the old city comprehensive functional areas, new city living areas, traffic station, wholesale market, urban-rural fringe areas and traditional residential district, contributing to summarizing street robbery spatial pattern. Consequently, according to the relationship between land use and street robbery discovered previous, correlative land use planning guidelines in every district are made to prevent the occurrence of criminal behaviour consciously, which may help to urban planning and police prevention.