中国入境旅游的经济增长效应与空间差异性研究

在旅游业与经济增长作用关系分析基础上,探究了旅游溢出理论,将其产生机制归纳为知识溢出、市场溢出和竞争效应3个方面。实证分析中,构建了包括入境旅游、物质资本、人力资本、科技创新和对外开放的分析框架,运用中国大陆31个省域2000~2014年面板数据对入境旅游的经济增长效应进行实证检验。全局分析得出中国入境旅游在邻近省市以集聚与合作为主,邻近省域入境旅游发展对本地经济增长具有辐射带动作用,且这种空间溢出效应大于直接效应;入境旅游业发达的地区,入境旅游的经济增长效应更大。局部分析发现,随着入境旅游的发展,入境旅游的经济增长效应不断强化,中部部分地区提升幅度最大;入境旅游的经济增长效应存在空间差异性,东部沿海地区贡献最大,西北地区相对最小。

Spillover Effects and Spatial Differences of Inbound Tourism on Economic Growth in China

This article explores the tourism spillover theory and summarizes its generating mechanism into three aspects, respectively, knowledge spillover, market spillover and competitive effect. In empirical analysis, this article constructs a framework including inbound tourism, human capital, material capital, technology innovation and opening to analyze the spillovers of tourism on economic growth, and the empirical test is carried out by using the panel data of 31 provinces in mainland China from 2000 to 2014. Global analysis reveals that the inbound tourism in the neighboring provinces is mainly concentrated and in cooperation state, with a significantly positive spillovers on local economic growth, and the spatial spillover effect is greater than the direct effect; the economic growth effect of inbound tourism is greater in inbound tourism industry developed area than less developed area. Local analysis finds that, the economic growth effect of inbound tourism is constantly strengthened with the development of inbound tourism, the largest increase appear in part of central region. Then, we imply heterogeneous production functions geographically weighted regression model to analyze spatial difference for the impact of inbound tourism on economic growth. It can be learned that the impact of inbound tourism on economic growth has spatial difference. It can be divided into four intervals and presents spatial distribution law of gradient decrement from the East to the West, of which the contribution of eastern coastal area is largest, and the northwest region is relatively small. At last, based on the above conclusions, we promote the corresponding policy recommendations for strategies of China’s inbound tourism and regional economic growth. For the future development of inbound tourism, on one hand the government should continue to vigorously develop inbound tourism, improve the tourism industry development level and the level of entry tourism development, accelerate transformation and upgrading of the structure of inbound tourism industry, and further reform to stimulate its huge development potential. It should be done to encourage inbound tourism from the fusion industry to cross-border integration, through integration with other industries to absorb new mode of operation, management ideas and capital strength, break the traditional profit pattern of only relying on the internal tourism. At the same time, we should encourage strong tourism enterprises, travel management company and tourism brand to carry out provincial operations, improve inter product competitiveness of provincial tourism and comprehensive strength, and make more contribution to economic growth in China. On the other hand, the development of Chinese inbound tourism must be carried out to a more comprehensive and in-depth analysis from the perspective of new economic geography, further eliminate market barriers between different provinces, accelerate cooperation and docking of China's inbound tourism market, and open up more space for the rise of spatial spillover effect of inbound tourism.