海洋资源约束与中国海洋经济增长——基于海洋资源“尾效”的计量检验

通过构建海洋资源“尾效”模型,运用面板数据分析方法对中国沿海11省份（不含港澳台）海洋资源“尾效”进行实证研究,结果表明：① 中国海洋资源“尾效”的平均水平为0.032 2,海洋资源对海洋经济增长的约束程度较高,资源利用方式整体呈粗放型。② 沿海各省份海洋资源“尾效”差异显著,其中广东、上海为海洋资源低约束型,海洋资源“尾效”值分别为0.009 4、0.009 8;山东、浙江、江苏、福建、天津、辽宁、河北为海洋资源高约束型,海洋资源“尾效”值介于0.010 0~0.050 0之间;广西、海南为海洋资源强约束型,海洋资源“尾效”值均大于0.050 0。③ 海洋资源“尾效”与涉海从业人员增长率、海洋资源消耗增长率、海洋资源弹性系数、资本弹性系数呈正相关关系,海洋资源消耗速度越快,对海洋经济增长的阻力越大,而劳动力、资本的过度供给会加大海洋资源消耗对海洋经济增长的阻碍力度。因此合理利用海洋资源、优化资源利用方式,合理分配区域人力资源、提高涉海从业人员的科技素质,并推动海洋产业结构优化调整是降低海洋资源“尾效”的关键。

Marine Resources Constraint and China’s Marine Economic Growth: Metrology Analysis Based on Marine Resources “Tail Drag”

Based on Romer’s ‘drag effect’ hypothesis and neo-classical theory of economic growth, the article puts forward the model of marine resources consumption drag with the growth of marine economy, and measured the influence degree of the marine resources on the growth of marine economy based on the model of marine resources consumption drag. The aim is to maintain the balance between sustainable development of marine economy and the lowest consumption of marine resources. It is of great and far-reaching significance to realize the sustainable utilization of marine resources, improve the quality of marine economic development and reduce the difference of regional marine economic development. The article has carried on the empirical research on the resources consumption drag of 11 coastal provinces (excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan) in China using the panel data analysis method and the GIS spatial analysis technology. The following conclusions can be reached: 1) The average of the marine resources consumption drag in China is 0.032 2, and the restraint of marine resources with marine economic growth is high. The utilization of resources presents the extensive investment on the whole. 2) The marine resources consumption drag has significant difference of 11 coastal provinces. The value of resources consumption drag of Guangdong and Shanghai is 0.009 4, 0.009 8 respectively. The smaller restriction of marine resources to marine economic growth is displayed in these provinces. The value of resources consumption drag of Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Tianjin, Liaoning and Hebei are between 0.010 0 and 0.050 0, they belong to high constraint. The most significant restriction of marine resources to marine economic growth is displayed in Guangxi and Hainan. The value of marine resources consumption drag of these provinces are greater than 0.050 0, they belong to strong constraint. 3) The labor growth rate, the growth rate of marine resource consumption, the output elasticity of marine resources, the capital elasticity are proportional to marine resources consumption drag. The faster the marine resource consumes, the greater the resistance of marine economic growth is. The capital and labor inputs will increase the hinder of marine resource consumption to economic growth. Therefore, using marine resources rationally and optimizing resource utilization, controlling population scale appropriately and improving the quality of the labor of marine economy, promoting the optimization adjustment of marine industrial structure is the key to reduce the marine resources consumption drag.