海洋资源环境承载能力超载阈值确定方法探讨

超载阈值是资源环境承载能力监测预警体系构建中的关键因子,其确定是当前资源环境承载能力评价方法研究中的重点和难点问题。本文首先分析了资源环境承载能力超载阈值的定义和内涵,结合国内外研究进展和国家发改委下发的《资源环境承载能力监测预警技术方法(试行)》,分析目前海洋资源环境承载能力评价采用的超载阈值确定方法及潜在的问题。试行方法主要是从海洋功能区划及环境质量标准的合规性,以及指标多年变化情况确定超载阈值,对资源环境保护与社会经济发展的关系协调考虑较少,评价方法的创新性以及评价结果的管理效能还较弱。本文还从海洋资源环境对于社会经济发展的限制性分析视角,探索构建区域差异性指标体系和更具科学性及管理适用性的超载阈值确定新思路。

Thresholds determination of marine resource and environmental carrying capacity

In the construction of resource and environmental carrying capacity monitoring and early-warning system, overloading thresholds are key factors, and their determination is an important but difficult topic in the current research of evaluation methods. This article focuses on the analysis of existing overloading threshold determination methods and associated problems according to relevant research in China and internationally, as well as the "Technical Manual of Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity Monitoring and Early-Warning (Trial)" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China. One conclusion of this study is that the trial technical manual is based on the compliance with marine functional zoning and environmental quality standards, as well as the trend of change to determine the overloading thresholds. The relationship between resource and environmental protection and socioeconomic development has not been fully considered. So the innovativeness of the method and the management implication of the evaluation results are still weak. This article explores the construction of a regional differentiated and more scientific and applicable method to determine the overloading threshold, from the perspective of restrictive effect of marine resources and environment on socioeconomic development.