基于应急疏散智能体模型模拟的城市避难所空间配置——以上海市静安区为例

城市应急避难所的空间配置一直是灾害防治和城市安全研究领域的热点问题。本文以城市居民尽快地,尽少拥挤地到达满足容纳需求的应急避难所为目标,整合遥感影像数据、高精度人口分布数据、交通路网数据和专家知识等数据,综合运用智能体模型和多准则决策方法,对城市避难所空间配置开展研究。本文设计了三类与应急疏散相关的智能体：政府智能体、避难所智能体和居民智能体,来实现应急疏散的模拟,并根据模拟结果支持应急避难所的空间选址和配置。选址方法上运用了多准则决策方法和权重敏感性分析,在选址高适宜区域内选定避难所的新建方案。以新的避难所空间布局和配置为条件,执行新一轮的应急疏散模拟过程,实现选址的循环优化,从而获得最终的避难所空间配置方案。本文以上海市静安区的应急避难所空间配置分析为案例,生成了该区域应急避难所的详细空间配置方案,该方案能帮助居民在尽少拥挤风险下尽快疏散到附近的避难所。本文提出的方法充实了中国城市避难所选址的相关理论与可操作性的技术基础,为其他地区开展避难所的配置工作提供借鉴与参考。

Spatial configuration of urban shelters based on simulation using emergency evacuation agent-based model:A case study in Jing'an District,Shanghai

Spatial configuration of urban emergency shelters is one of the hotspot issues in disaster prevention and urban emergency management. The purpose of this study is to conduct spatial configuration of urban shelters which can help urban residents have access to the emergency shelters as soon as possible with less congestion. The spatial configuration model is built on the basis of the agent-based model and multi-criteria decision-making method. Remote sensing image data, high-precision population data, road network data and expert knowledge are integrated in the model. Three types of agents involved in emergency evacuation are designed, which include the government agent, shelter agents and resident agents, to conduct evacuation simulation. A government agent can delimitate the service areas of shelters in accordance with the administrative boundaries and road distances between the positions of residents and the locations of the shelters. Shelter agents can select specified land uses as potentially available shelters for different disasters, generate the service areas of shelters, record the information of the residents in their service areas and do relative statistical work of evacuation processes. Resident agents have a series of attributes, such as ages, positions, and walking speeds. They also have several behaviors, such as reducing speed when walking in the crowd, and helping old people and children. Integrating these three types of agents which are correlated with each other, we can simulate evacuation procedures. The simulation results are utilized to support location-allocation and configuration of emergency shelters. The location-allocation method of this study is based on multi-criteria decision making and weight sensitivity analysis, so that the locations of new shelters can be selected in highly-suitable regions for location-allocation. When the new shelters are allocated, a new round of emergency evacuation simulation will be executed to realize loop optimization of location-allocation based on the new spatial distribution of shelters to generate the final spatial configuration plan. A case study in Jing'an District, Shanghai, China, was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the model. The simulation results convinced that the new model can provide detailed planning for spatial configuration of urban shelters, which can help the residents evacuate to nearby shelters as quickly as possible with less congestion risks. The model provides a new methodology to conduct high-quality location-allocation of urban emergency shelters. It can also be extended to conduct similar spatial configuration work in other urban regions for different kinds of emergency shelters.