新疆伊犁地区近250年冷暖变化特征分析

用树木年轮年表可重建过去的气候，扩展对气候变化的全面估计，本文利用伊犁地区２２个树轮年表，重建了该地区２５０年平均温度序列，并对周期冷暖变化特征进行了分析，对未来趋作了预测。

ANALYSIS ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF COLD-WARM CLIMATIC VARIATIONS SINCE RECENT 250 YEAR IN YILI REGION, XINJIANG, CHINA

A correlative analysis on the tree-ring growth of 22 tree-ring series and mean annual air temperature of 10 local meteorological stahons is undertaken by using the driatological principle of treeering. Based on the function analysis of tree-ring growth renecting air temperature, a multi-component correlahon equation is set up with the major component analysis method. Thus, a sequence of mean annual air temperature since recent 250 ywar is recovered for the study area. The recovered data of cold-warm climatic variahons are tested by observed data, and arc reliable. There were 3 cold periods and 4 warm periods in the region since recent 250 a. Morcover, there were the relatively stable variation periods of 166, 83, 11, and 2.2 years. The futurc tendency of air temperature variation is predicted, i.e., it is in warm period at present in the study area,, the air temperature will Slightly rise after 1996, then it will go into a cold period.