Impact of global warming on cyclonic disturbances over south Asian region |
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Authors: | SAVITA PATWARDHAN ASHWINI KULKARNI K KRISHNA KUMAR |
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Institution: | 1.Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology,Pune,India |
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Abstract: | A state-of-the-art regional climate modelling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) developed
by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK is applied over the Indian domain to investigate the impact of
global warming on the cyclonic disturbances such as depressions and storms. The PRECIS simulations at 50 × 50 km horizontal
resolution are made for two time slices, present (1961–1990) and the future (2071–2100), for two socioeconomic scenarios A2
and B2. The model simulations under the scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols are analysed
to study the likely changes in the frequency, intensity and the tracks of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian
Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) and the Indian landmass during monsoon season. The model overestimates the frequency
of cyclonic disturbances over the Indian subcontinent in baseline simulations (1961–1990). The change is evaluated towards
the end of present century (2071–2100) with respect to the baseline climate. The present study indicates that the storm tracks
simulated by the model are southwards as compared to the observed tracks during the monsoon season, especially for the two
main monsoon months, viz., July and August. The analysis suggests that the frequency of cyclonic disturbances forming over
north Indian Ocean is likely to reduce by 9% towards the end of the present century in response to the global warming. However,
the intensity of cyclonic disturbances is likely to increase by about 11% compared to the present. |
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