中国制造业分布的地理变迁与驱动因素

近年来中国制造业分布格局呈现出新的动向。以2004-2005年为转折点,以食品轻纺行业为主的部分制造业部门开始从沿海省份向中西部省份转移,北京、天津、上海、浙江、广东、福建等省份的产业份额明显下降,安徽、江西、湖南、河南、四川等中西部省份的产业份额趋于增加。在地市尺度上,制造业分布变化呈现出"西进北上"的特点,具体表现为产业份额从沿海发达城市转向沿海省份内部发展相对滞后的地市、以及中西部省份内部产业基础较好且本地市场规模较大的地市。中部地区的重点开发区域已成为承接产业转移的重要载体。沿海地区劳动力、土地等要素成本上升导致要素成本的区域差异不断扩大,与此同时中西部地区市场邻近和供给邻近逐步得到改善。沿海地区和中西部地区之间要素成本差异的扩大和贸易成本差异的缩小,使得贸易成本和要素成本的均衡关系发生逆转性变化,这是驱动中国产业分布地理变迁的核心因素。

Changes in geographical distribution of Chinese manufacturing sectors and its driving forces

Geographical changes of manufacturing sectors are emerging in China. Since the period 2004-2005, some manufacturing sectors have shifted from the coastal to the inland areas. The shares of manufacturing sectors in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Fujian have decreased obviously. In contrast, the shares of manufacturing sectors in some inland provinces such as Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan, Henan and Sichuan have increased. At a prefecture level, the shares of manufacturing sectors have shifted from the developed coastal cities to the developing coastal cities and the inland cities with relatively large local markets and existing industrial foundation. In particular, the shares of manufacturing sectors have increased significantly in the key development zones of central China. Rising labor and land costs in the coastal areas have widened the regional gap between the coastal and inland areas. On the other hand, market access and supply access in the inland areas have been improved due to economic development and income growth. Growing regional gap of production cost and reducing gap of trade cost between the coastal and inland areas resulted in a reversing change in balance between production cost and trade cost, which has led to the geographical changes of manufacturing sectors in China.