丽水市1953—2010年气温变化对四季长度的影响

根据丽水市国家气象观测站1953-2010年逐日气温资料,按照国家季节划分标准对四季长度进行划分,运用趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验和滑动t检验对四季长度和气温变化的趋势演变、突变转折进行研究,从而探讨气温变化对四季长度的影响。结果表明：丽水市四季长度表现为夏季最长,冬季次之,春季和秋季相接近,秋季略短。四季长度的变化趋势为春、秋季长度延长缓慢,夏季变长明显,冬季长度缩短显著。近58 a丽水市气温呈明显的上升趋势,气候倾斜率为0.17℃/10a。气温变化对四季长度有较大的影响,尤其以冬季最为显著。突变检验表明,气温上升与冬季长度缩短的突变时间都在20世纪90年代中期;相关性检验显示气温与冬季长度的负相关最明显,通过α=0.01的显著性检验。

Impact of Temperature Change from 1953 to 2010 on the Season Length in Lishui

Based on the daily temperature data supplied by Lishui National Meteorological Observa- tory from 1953 to 2010, according to state delineation of the season, the trend analysis, Mann-Kendall method and moving t test were used to analyze tlme-frequency characteristics and abrupt change of the season length and temperature, in order to investigate the impact of temperature change on the season length. The results showed that： the length of summer was the longest, the next was winter, and the length of spring was near the autumn, and autumn was shorter. The trends of season length climate char- acteristics displayed such as： the spring and autumn became longer slowly, and the summer became lon- ger obviously, also the winter became more and more shorter. There was a significantly increased trend with an increased rate of 0.17℃/10a in Lishui over the past 58 years. The temperature displayed a sig- nificantly impact on the season length, especially winter. The abrupt test showed the winter length became shorter with the temperature increased at the same abrupt change time of the middle of the 1990s. Also the variation of temperature was opposite correlated to winter length, exceeded α = 0.01 confidence test.