Bayes estimation: A novel approach to derivation of internally consistent thermodynamic data for minerals,their uncertainties,and correlations. Part II: Application

Internally consistent thermodynamic data, including their uncertainties and correlations, are reported for 22 phases of the quaternary system CaO-Al₂O₃-SiO₂-H₂O. These data have been derived by simultaneous evaluation of the appropriate phase properties (PP) and reaction properties (RP) by the novel technique of Bayes estimation (BE). The thermodynamic model used and the theory of BE was expounded in Part I of this paper. Part II is the follow-up study illustrating an application of BE. The input for BE comprised, among others, the a priori values for standard enthalpy of formation of the i-th phase, Δ_f H _i ⁰ , and its standard entropy, S _i ⁰ , in addition to the reaction reversal constraints for 33 equilibria involving the relevant phases. A total of 269 RP restrictions have been processed, of which 107 turned out to be non-redundant. The refined values for Δ_f H _i ⁰ and S _i ⁰ obtained by BE, including their 2σ-uncertainties, appear in Table 4; the Appendix reproduces the corresponding correlation matrix. These data permit generation of computed phase diagrams with 2σ-uncertainty envelopes based on conventional error propagation; Fig. 3 depicts such a phase diagram for the system CaO-Al₂O₃-SiO₂. It shows that the refined dataset is capable of yielding phase diagrams with uncertainty envelopes narrow enough to be geologically useful. The results in Table 4 demonstrate that the uncertainties of the prior values for Δ_f H _i ^Emphasis>0 , given in Table 1, have decreased by up to an order of magnitude, while those for S _i ⁰ improved by a factor of up to two. For comparison, Table 4 also lists the refined Δ_f H _i ⁰ and S _i ⁰ data obtained by mathematical programming (MAP), minimizing a quadratic objective function used earlier by Berman (1988). Examples of calculated phase diagrams are given to demonstrate the advantages of BE for deriving internally consistent thermodynamic data. Although P-T curves generated from both MAP and BE databases will pass through the reversal restrictions, BE datasets appear to be better suited for extrapolations beyond the P-T range explored experimentally and for predicting equilibria not constrained by reversals.