地下水污染风险预警等级及阈值确定方法研究综述

预警等级及阈值的科学确定对地下水污染风险预警系统的建立起着至关重要的作用。当前我国地下水污染风险预警相关研究尚处在探索阶段，未形成科学完备的理论与方法体系。文章基于国内外已有研究报道，较系统地梳理了地下水污染风险预警相关研究，归纳总结了预警等级及阈值确定方法的研究现状，并对进一步研究做了展望。目前阈值主要的划定方法有相关标准法、临界值法、综合评判法等。相关标准法适用于大尺度宏观区域，临界值法在基础资料较完善的研究区域具有较强的针对性和准确性，而综合评判法能够处理多个变量因素，能对定性因素做出量化评价，适用于变量、定性因素较多的研究区域，为不同条件研究区地下水污染风险预警等级划分及阈值划定方法的选择提供了理论依据。最后指出在完善我国地下水污染风险预警体系理论方法的工作中，应当进一步关注:（1）多学科研究成果的交叉渗透，借助多方法交互应用；（2）加强与地下水污染相关的水文地质调查与监测工作，不断提高地下水污染调查研究程度；（3）综合分析地质、污染源、地下水价值及动态等地下水污染影响因素，以提高预警结果科学性。

Review on the determination methods for early warning grade and threshold of groundwater pollution risk

It is very important to determine the reasonable threshold of groundwater pollution risk early warning for the establishment of a groundwater pollution early warning system. At present, however, the threshold of groundwater pollution risk early warning in our country is in the exploration stage, and has not formed a perfect theoretical method system. Based on the relevant research results at home and abroad, this paper systematically combs the research methods of groundwater pollution risk early warning, summarizes the research progress of groundwater pollution risk early warning levels and threshold delimitation methods. The methods of threshold delimitation mainly include the established criteria method, threshold setting method, comprehensive evaluation method and other methods. This paper compares the applicable conditions of various threshold delimitation methods. The established criteria method is applicable to the macro region on a large scale. The threshold setting method has strong pertinence and accuracy in the research region with perfect basic data. The comprehensive evaluation method can deal with multiple variable factors, make quantitative evaluation on qualitative factors, and is applicable to the research region with more variables and qualitative factors. The conclusions provide a theoretical basis for the early warning classification of groundwater pollution risk and the selection of threshold delimitation methods in different study areas. Finally, this paper points out that the following two works should be further strengthened in improving the theoretical methods of groundwater pollution risk early warning system in China: (1) Strengthen the cross penetration of multi-disciplinary research results, with the help of multi-method interactive application. (2) Strengthen the hydrogeological investigation and monitoring related to groundwater pollution, and continuously improve the level of groundwater pollution investigation and research. (3) In order to obtain the scientific early warning results, the influencing factors of groundwater pollution, such as geology, pollution sources, groundwater value and dynamics, are analyzed comprehensively.