冬季北极涛动异常与新疆气温变化的关系

基于新疆96个气象站1961—2014年月平均气温、北极涛动指数和NCEP/NCAR再分析环流资料,分析了冬季北极涛动异常与新疆同期气温变化的关系及其影响。结果表明:冬季北极涛动指数与新疆冬季平均气温相关较好,42.7%的测站冬季气温与北极涛动指数的相关系数通过0.05显著性水平检验,主要集中在新疆北部地区。在冬季北极涛动指数偏强的7 a,新疆冬季气温偏高、偏低的概率分别为93.0%与6.3%;在冬季北极涛动指数异常偏低的14 a,冬季气温偏高、偏低的概率分别为41.5%和56.1%,偏低概率高于偏高概率。当冬季北极涛动指数偏强时,850 h Pa新疆及其北部广大区域盛行异常偏南风,不利于冷空气南下,新疆冬季气温高;反之,盛行异常偏北风,新疆冬季气温偏低。

The Preliminary Discussion of the Arctic Oscillation and Annual Winter Temperature in Xinjiang Region

In this paper, 1957 --2012 160 stations in China in the monthly temperature data from 1961 --2013 96 stations in Xinjiang monthly temperature data and NCEP / NCAR reanalysis data, the use of composite analysis, statistical analysis methods and correlation analysis to study the winter In international relations Arctic Oscillation and winter temperatures of the Xinjiang region, and further study of the Arctic Oscillation and the Xinjiang-year relationship between the temperature on interannual time scales. The results showed that: (1) the average winter temperature in winter maximum temperature, minimum temperature in winter the same trend, winter minimum temperature rise more obvious, conclusion is consistent with global warming. (2) AO Xinjiang winter temperatures in most areas over the same period showed a positive correlation. When AO abnormally high, the high temperature in most parts of Xinjiang. When AO abnormally low, the low temperature of some regions. Altay, Tacheng and other places significant Shanshan most obvious. (3) Winter AO and temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature over the same period in Xinjiang have good correlation consistency, Xinjiang region from north to south, the correlation weakened. From west to east, and gradually increase the correlation. (4), AO unusually high winter, northern Xinjiang winter high temperatures affected the winter Arctic Oscillation, prone to mild winter; on the contrary, AO abnormally low in winter, the low winter temperatures in northern Xinjiang, prone to cold winters.